Mathematical model explains huge recurring rainstorms in the tropical Indian and Pacific oceans

Angel Adames at the DYNAMO field campaign in the Maldive Islands in February 2012. He is holding a research weather balloon and a box that will track temperature, dew point, etc., at different heights.

El Niño is fairly well understood, and by now it’s a household word. But another huge system in the tropical Indian and Pacific oceans, which wreaks similar havoc in world weather, is relatively unknown and is just beginning to be explained.

University of Washington scientists have published a mathematical model that could help explain and forecast the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a massive cluster of thunderstorms that plays a role in global weather.

“Over the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific – one of the warmest, most moist areas of the planet – there is a colossal cluster of clouds every 40 to 50 days or so,” said corresponding author Ángel Adames, a UW doctoral student in atmospheric sciences. “When it’s active, it’s a very strong signal.”