As the planet warms, glaciers are retreating and causing changes in the world’s mountain water systems. For the first time, scientists at the University of Oxford and the University of Washington have directly linked human-induced climate change to the risk of flooding from a glacial lake known as one of the world’s greatest flood risks.

The study examined the case of Lake Palcacocha in the Peruvian Andes, which could cause flooding with devastating consequences for 120,000 residents in the city of Huaraz. The paper, published Feb. 4 in Nature Geoscience, provides new evidence for an ongoing legal case that hinges on the link between greenhouse gas emissions and particular climate change impacts.

“The scientific challenge was to provide the clearest and cleanest assessment of the physical linkages between climate change and the changing flood hazard,” said co-author Gerard Roe, a UW professor of Earth and Space Sciences.

In 2016, Roe and colleagues developed a method to determine whether an individual glacier’s retreat can be linked to human-induced climate change. The retreat of mountain glaciers has several consequences, including creating basins in the space left by the retreating glacier. Precipitation and meltwater collects in these basins to form glacial lakes. Recent work has shown a rapid worldwide growth in the number and size of high-elevation glacial lakes.

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